Thursday, October 04, 2018

Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 10/04/2018 03:03:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in September, compared to consensus of +184k. While we believe the underlying pace of job growth likely accelerated from the +185k average pace this summer, our forecast reflects a temporary drag of around 33k from Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas during the payroll reference week. ...

We estimate the unemployment rate edged down one tenth to 3.8% … we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% month over month in tomorrow’s report ... We estimate the year-on-year rate fell by two tenths to 2.7% ...
emphasis added
CR: Note that Goldman is expecting Hurricane Florence to reduce employment by 33,000 in September.