Friday, October 26, 2018

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2018 08:36:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2018 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 28, 2018.
...
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected a downturn in exports and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.
emphasis added
The advance Q3 GDP report, with 3.5% annualized growth, was close to expectations.

Note the Change in Private Inventories contributed 2.07 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, and this will probably unwind in Q4.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at 4.0% annualized rate in Q3, up from 3.8% in Q2.   Residential investment (RI) decreased 4.0% in Q3. Equipment investment increased at a 0.4% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.9% pace.

I'll have more later ...