Saturday, September 01, 2018

Schedule for Week of September 2, 2018

by Bill McBride on 9/01/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, August auto sales, and the July trade deficit.

----- Monday, Sept 3rd -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, Sept 4th -----

8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for July.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 57.6, down from 58.1 in July.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 58.1% in July, the employment index was at 56.5%, and the new orders index was at 60.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.9 million SAAR in August, up from 16.7 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Sept 5th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $50.2 billion in July from $46.3 billion in June.

----- Thursday, Sept 6th -----

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 182,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 219,000 added in July.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 213 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 213 thousand the previous week.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.8 from 55.7 in July.

----- Friday, Sept 7th -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 198,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, up from the 157,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.8%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July the year-over-year change was 2.400 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.