Friday, September 07, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 9/07/2018 01:33:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +3.2% (qoq ar). [Sept 6 estimate].
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch:
July construction data disappointed, edging down our 3Q GDP tracker by 0.1pp to 3.2%. Meanwhile, positive data revisions lifted 2Q GDP tracking to 4.4% from 4.2%. [Sept 7 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 5, down from 4.7 percent on September 4. [Sept 5 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q3 and 2.8% for 2018:Q4. [Sept 7 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.