Thursday, September 06, 2018

Goldman: August Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 9/06/2018 02:52:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in August ... While continued strength in employment surveys and jobless claims data suggest underlying labor demand remains solid, we expect a drag of around 40k from negative residual seasonality. ...

We estimate the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.8% … we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year ...
emphasis added