Tuesday, September 04, 2018

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in July

by Bill McBride on 9/04/2018 08:00:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: oreLogic Reports July Home Prices Increased by 6.2 Percent, Homeowners Waiting to Sell for Anticipated Increase Return on Investment

CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 6.2 percent year over year from July 2017 to July 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.3 percent in July 2018 compared with June 2018. (June 2018 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2018 to July 2019. On a month-over-month basis, homeprices are expected to decrease by 0.2 percent from July to August 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

With increased interest rates and home prices, the CoreLogic Home Price Index is rising at a slower rate than it was a year ago,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While markets in the western part of the country continue to experience rapid home-price growth, many of those metros are overvalued, and will likely experience a slowdown soon.”
emphasis added
CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years.  This is near the middle of that range.  The year-over-year comparison has been positive for over six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.