Friday, September 07, 2018

August Employment Report: 201,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 9/07/2018 08:40:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +248,000 to +208,000, and the change for July was revised down from +157,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 50,000 less than previously reported.
...
In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $27.16. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 77 cents, or 2.9 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 201 thousand in August (private payrolls increased 204 thousand).

Payrolls for June and July were revised down by a combined 50 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In August the year-over-year change was 2.330 million jobs.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate declined in August to 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.3% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in August at 3.9%. 

This was close to the consensus expectations of 195,000 jobs, however the previous two months combined were revised down by 50,000.  A decent report.

I'll have much more later ...