Friday, August 31, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 8/31/2018 02:47:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

We boosted our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP growth by one tenth to +3.0% (qoq ar). [Aug 30 estimate].
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch:
Weak trade data sliced 0.2pp from 3Q GDP tracking, leaving our estimate at 3.3% qoq saar. [Aug 31 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on August 30, down from 4.6 percent on August 24. [Aug 30 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 stands at 2.0%. [Aug 31 estimate]
CR Note: The range has narrowed, but it is still early. It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.