Friday, August 24, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 8/24/2018 11:18:00 AM

From Goldman Sachs:

We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +3.1% (qoq ar). We also lowered our past-quarter tracking estimate for Q2 by one tenth to 3.9%" [Aug 22 estimate].
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch:
The data added 0.2pp to 3Q GDP tracking, bringing it up to 3.5%. 2Q tracking remains at 4.1%. [Aug 24 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.6 percent on August 24, up from 4.3 percent on August 16. [Aug 24 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 stands at 2.0%. [Aug 24 estimate]
CR Note: Still a wide range, and it is early, but GDP in the 3s seems likely.