Thursday, August 23, 2018

New Home Sales decrease to 627,000 Annual Rate in July

by Bill McBride on 8/23/2018 10:10:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 627 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down, combined (June was revised up, but April and May were revised down).

"Sales of new single-family houses in July 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.7 percent below the revised June rate of 638,000, but is 12.8 percent above the July 2017 estimate of 556,000. "
emphasis added
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in July to 5.9 months from 5.7 months in June.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 309,000. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, InventoryOn inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also somewhat low.

New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In July 2018 (red column), 53 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 48 thousand homes were sold in July.

The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010.

This was below expectations of 648,000 sales SAAR, and the previous months were revised down, combined. I'll have more later today.