Thursday, August 02, 2018

Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2018 03:54:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 205k in July, somewhat above consensus of 192k. Our forecast reflects lower initial jobless claims as well as the continued strength in employment surveys and job availability measures. Additionally, while trade policy uncertainty is likely on the rise, the recent escalation may have occurred too late to meaningfully impact tomorrow’s report.

We expect the unemployment rate to partially reverse its June increase, falling a tenth to 3.9%. ... We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month over month, lowering the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 2.6%.
emphasis added