Thursday, August 16, 2018

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Growth in activity slowed" in August

by Bill McBride on 8/16/2018 01:43:00 PM

From the Philly Fed: August 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Growth in regional manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. All the broad indicators remained positive but fell from their readings in July.
...
The diffusion index for current general activity decreased 14 points this month to 11.9, its lowest reading in 21 months. Nearly 32 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 20 percent reported decreases. The new orders index fell 22 points to 9.9. More than 34 percent of the firms reported an increase in new orders, while 24 percent reported a decrease.

The firms continued to report overall higher employment, but increases were less widespread this month. Just 18 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment this month, down from 24 percent last month. Only 4 percent of the firms reported decreases in employment. The current employment index fell 3 points to 14.3. The current average workweek index declined 3 points.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index might decline in August, but still show solid expansion.