Tuesday, August 07, 2018

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in June

by Bill McBride on 8/07/2018 08:57:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports June Home Prices Increased by 6.8 Percent, Millennials Identify Affordability as Biggest Hurdle

CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 6.8 percent year over year from June 2017 to June 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.7 percent in June 2018 compared with May 2018, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from June 2018 to June 2019. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to be flat from June to July 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The rise in home prices and interest rates over the past year have eroded affordability and are beginning to slow existing home sales in some markets,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “For June, we found in CoreLogic public records data that home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California were down 9 and 12 percent, respectively, from one year earlier. Further increases in home prices and mortgage rates over the next year will likely dampen sales and home-price growth.”
emphasis added
CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years.  This is near the top end of that range.  The year-over-year comparison has been positive for over six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.