Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in June

by Bill McBride on 8/28/2018 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Las Vegas Leads Price Gains in June According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in June, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.5% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.8% increase and San Francisco with a 10.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2018 versus the year ending May 2018.
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Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.8% in June. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in June. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.1% month-over-month increases. Nineteen of 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“Home prices continue to rise across the U.S.” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market. Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets. Rising mortgage rates – 30 year fixed rate mortgages rose from 4% to 4.5% since January – and the rise in home prices are affecting housing affordability.

“The west still leads the rise in home prices with Las Vegas displacing Seattle as the market with the fastest price increase. Population and employment growth often drive homes prices. Las Vegas is among the fastest growing U.S. cities based on both employment and population, with its unemployment rate dropping below the national average in the last year. The northeast and mid-west are seeing smaller home price increases. Washington, Chicago and New York City showed the three slowest annual price gains among the 20 cities covered.”
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 0.9% from the bubble peak, and up 0.1% in June (SA).

The Composite 20 index is 2.3% above the bubble peak, and up 0.1% (SA) in June.

The National index is 9.8% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in June.  The National index is up 48.5% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.0% compared to June 2017.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 6.2% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.