Friday, August 24, 2018

2018 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Agenda

by Bill McBride on 8/24/2018 08:27:00 AM

Note: the presented papers are usually posted to the Kansas City Fed's site fairly quickly. On twitter.

2018 Economic Policy Symposium: Changing Market Structures and Implications for Monetary Policy. Times listed on program are Mountain Standard Time.

From Merrill Lynch on Jackson Hole Symposium:

We expect the papers presented to be primarily academic in nature and of only marginal interest to the markets: this would be consistent with the recent shift away from using Jackson Hole as a forum for policy signaling.

However, two stories will swirl around the meetings. The first is the issue of Fed independence. ... We do not expect Chair Powell to discuss Fed independence in his speech at 10am today, and there will be no Q&A. …

The other issue of interest will be the Fed's tightening plans. In terms of policy rates, in our view the Fed has no reason to deviate from its pace of quarterly rate hikes unless either the macro data slow substantially or core inflation moves substantially higher. The more proximate concern is monetary policy implementation. Specifically, the Fed funds rate continues to move towards the upper bound of the Fed's target range. Mark Cabana has argued that this is because of bank demand for excess reserves in order to satisfy post-crisis regulatory requirements. The risk is that the Fed will have to stop unwinding its balance sheet earlier than the markets are expecting in order to keep the funds rate within the target range. The July / August meeting minutes mention that the Fed will address its operating framework in the fall.
emphasis added