Friday, July 27, 2018

Top Twenty Five GDP Quarters since 2000

by Bill McBride on 7/27/2018 01:24:00 PM

With the release of Q2 GDP data, and the 2018 Comprehensive Update to GDP (including revisions), here is an update to the table showing the top 25 quarters since Q1 2000.

Q2 2018 is the eleventh best quarter for real annualized GDP since Q1 2000. Note: unrounded, Q2 2018 was at 4.06%, just behind Q4 2004 at 4.07%.

Q2 GDP was solid..

As I've noted before, based on demographics, 2% is the new 4% (that is just simple arithmetic).   I've also noted that a large government program (such as a war, or a tax cut) can give a short term boost to GDP.


Top 20 GDP Quarters since 2000
Real GDP, Annualized Rate
GDPYearQuarterPresident
17.5%2000Q2Clinton
27.0%2003Q3G.W.Bush
35.4%2006Q1 G.W.Bush
45.1%2014Q2Obama
54.9%2014Q3Obama
64.7%2011Q4 Obama
74.7%2003Q4 G.W.Bush
84.5%2005Q1 G.W.Bush
94.5%2009Q4 Obama
104.1%2004Q4 G.W.Bush
114.1%2018Q2Trump
123.8%2004Q3G.W.Bush
133.7%2010Q2Obama
143.6%2005Q3G.W.Bush
153.6%2013Q1 Obama
163.5%2002Q1 G.W.Bush
173.5%2003Q2G.W.Bush
183.4%2006Q4 G.W.Bush
193.3%2015Q2Obama
203.3%2015Q1 Obama
213.2%2013Q4 Obama
223.2%2013Q3Obama
233.2%2012Q1 Obama
243.1%2004Q2G.W.Bush
253.0%2017Q2Trump