Saturday, July 28, 2018

Schedule for Week of July 29, 2018

by Bill McBride on 7/28/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the July employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for June, Case-Shiller house prices for May, the July ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, July auto sales, and the June trade deficit.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting.

----- Monday, July 30th -----

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July.

----- Tuesday, July 31st -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 64.1 in June.

----- Wednesday, Aug 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 172,000 payroll jobs added in July, up from 177,000 added in June.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 59.4, down from 60.2 in June.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 60.2% in June, the employment index was at 56.0%, and the new orders index was at 63.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.1 million SAAR in July, down from 17.5 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce no change to policy at this meeting.

----- Thursday, Aug 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 218 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand the previous week.

----- Friday, Aug 3rd -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 188,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 213,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.9%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June the year-over-year change was 2.374 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $45.6 billion in June from $43.1 billion in May.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for index to decrease to 58.8 from 59.1 in June.