Monday, July 16, 2018

Q2 GDP Forecasts Increased Following Retail Report

by Bill McBride on 7/16/2018 01:30:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Core control retail sales were flat, weaker than expected but the May number was revised higher to 0.8% mom from 0.5% mom. The upward revision to May more than offset the weakness in June, pushing up 2Q GDP tracking up to 4.0% from 3.8%. [July 16 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on July 16, up from 3.9 percent on July 11. The nowcast of second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. [July 16 estimate]
CR note: This looks like it might be the first quarter with 4.0%+ real annualized GDP growth since Q3 2014 when GDP increased 5.2% (after increasing 4.6% in Q2 2014).