Thursday, July 05, 2018

Goldman: June Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 7/05/2018 04:47:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 200k in June, slightly above consensus. Our forecast reflects strong employment surveys across both manufacturing and services. Our forecast also embeds solid summer hiring of students and recent graduates, and we note that job growth tends to accelerate in June when the labor market is tight.

We expect the unemployment to round down to 3.7% in tomorrow’s report. ... We estimate a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting favorable calendar effects. This would boost the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 2.8%.
emphasis added