Thursday, July 26, 2018

Friday: GDP

by Bill McBride on 7/26/2018 08:04:00 PM

On GDP, remember that the release will include the 2018 Comprehensive Update to GDP. In addition to revisions and changes in methodology, the entire series of GDP (annually all the way back to 1929, and quarterly back to 1947) will be updated with new seasonal adjustments.

Also the BEA will now release GDP Not Seasonally Adjusted. This will be interesting since every year GDP NSA declines in Q1.

And the final pre-release update from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 26, down from 4.5 percent on July 18. [July 26 estimate]
emphasis added
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 4.2% annualized in Q2, up from 2.0% in Q1.

• At 10:00 AM,: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 97.2, up from 97.1.