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Saturday, June 30, 2018

Schedule for Week of July 1, 2018

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, June auto sales, and the May trade deficit.

----- Monday, July 2nd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.3, down from 58.7 in May.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 58.7% in May, the employment index was at 56.3%, and the new orders index was at 63.7%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, July 3rd -----

Early: Reis Q2 2018 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.0 million SAAR in June, up from 16.8 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the May sales rate.

8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for May.

----- Wednesday, July 4th -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

----- Thursday, July 5th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 188,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 178,000 added in May.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223 thousand initial claims, down from 227 thousand the previous week.

Early: Reis Q2 2018 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for index to decrease to 58.3 from 58.6 in May.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 12-13, 2018

----- Friday, July 6th -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, down from the 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In May the year-over-year change was 2.363 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through April. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.5 billion in May from $46.2 billion in April.