Friday, June 29, 2018

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 6/29/2018 11:18:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data sliced 0.4pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 3.6% qoq saar. [June 29 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on June 29, down from 4.5 percent on June 27. [June 29 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2018:Q2 and 2.5% for 2018:Q3. [June 29 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 2.8% to 3.8% range in Q2.