Friday, June 15, 2018

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 6/15/2018 11:50:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data weighed on GDP tracking, with 1Q edging down to 2.4% qoq saar. 2Q held at 3.7%. [June 15 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 14, up from 4.6 percent on June 8. [June 14 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
he New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2018:Q2 and 2.8% for 2018:Q3. [June 15 estimate]
CR Note: This is quite a range.   These estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 3% to 4.8% range in Q2.