Thursday, June 28, 2018

Q1 GDP Revised down to 2.0% Annual Rate

by Bill McBride on 6/28/2018 08:38:00 AM

From the BEA: National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2018 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2018, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent.

TThe GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.2 percent. With this third estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised down.
emphasis added
Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 1.0% to 0.9%. Residential investment was revised up from -2.0% to -1.1%. Most revisions were small. This was below the consensus forecast.