Monday, June 18, 2018

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

by Bill McBride on 6/18/2018 03:13:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million in May, little changed from April’s preliminary pace and down 2.3% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS data, as well as tracking sources, indicate that while the inventory of existing homes for sale in May was down from a year ago, the YOY decline in May was less than that in April. I project that the NAR’s estimate of the number of existing homes for sale at the end of May will be 1.87 million, up 3.9% from April’s preliminary estimate and down 5.1% from last May.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up about 6.3% from last May. Note, however, that of late the NAR’s median existing home sales prices have shown lower YOY gains than local realtor/MLS data would have suggested, for reasons that are not clear.

CR Note: Existing home sales for May are scheduled to be released by the NAR on Wednesday, June 20th. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 5.56 Million SAAR.