by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2018 01:47:00 PM
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.
And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.
And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases.
I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.
The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas and Sacramento (through March), and also Phoenix and total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (both through February 2018).
Click on graph for larger image.
This shows the year-over-year change in inventory for Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas. The black line if the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR.
Note that inventory in Sacramento was up 19% year-over-year in March (inventory still very low), and has increased year-over-year for six consecutive months.
Also note the inventory is still down sharply in Las Vegas (red), but the YoY decline has been getting smaller.
I'll try to add a few other markets.
Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I will be watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.