by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2018 08:51:00 AM
Tuesday, March 06, 2018
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose More Than 6 Percent Year Over Year for the Sixth Consecutive Month in January
CoreLogic® ... today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 6.6 percent from January 2017 to January 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices increased by 0.5 percent in January 2018 compared with December 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.CR Note: The YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last couple of years. This is towards the top end of that range.
Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to increase by 4.8 percent on a year-over-year basis from January 2018 to January 2019, with a 12-month increase of more than 7 percent projected for California, Florida, Nevada and Oregon. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Entry-level homes have been in particularly short supply, leading to more rapid home-price growth compared with more expensive homes,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Homes with a purchase price less than 75 percent of the local area median had price growth of 9.0 percent during the year ending January 2018. Homes that sold for more than 125 percent of median appreciated 5.3 percent over the same 12-month period. Thus, first-time buyers are facing acute affordability challenges in some high-cost areas.”
The year-over-year comparison has been positive for almost six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.