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Sunday, February 18, 2018

Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 11% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2018 10:04:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in January were up 2.8% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 10.7% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fifteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices rose a little faster in 2017 compared to 2016 (5.0% through November or 5.5% annual rate).

January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jan-082,907---55319.0%56,8741---
Jan-094,73662.9%1,62534.3%53,581-5.8%
Jan-105,78922.2%2,47542.8%41,506-22.5%
Jan-116,53913.0%3,26349.9%42,8813.3%
Jan-126,455-1.3%3,19849.5%25,025-41.6%
Jan-135,790-10.3%2,55544.1%22,090-11.7%
Jan-144,799-17.1%1,74036.3%28,63029.6%
Jan-154,785-0.3%1,52932.0%27,238-4.9%
Jan-165,1998.7%1,42527.4%25,736-5.5%
Jan-176,02815.9%1,63127.1%23,762-7.7%
Jan-186,1972.8%1,66826.9%21,226-10.7%
1 January 2008 probably included pending listings