by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2018 08:09:00 AM
Saturday, January 27, 2018
The key report this week is the January employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the January ISM manufacturing index, January auto sales, and the Case-Shiller house price index.
Also the FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional surveys for January.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2017 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 6.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for November.
10:00 AM: the Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 195,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 250,000 added in December.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 64.0, down from 67.6 in December.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in the index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce no change to policy at this meeting.
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 233 thousand the previous week.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.7, down from 59.7 in December.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in December. The PMI was at 59.7% in December, the employment index was at 57.0%, and the new orders index was at 69.4%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.3 million SAAR in January, down from 17.8 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 176,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January, up from the 148,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In December the year-over-year change was 2.055 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
Note from the BLS: "Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2018 on February 2, 2018, the establishment survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual benchmark adjustment for March 2017 and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2016 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2013 are subject to revision. Consistent with standard practice, some historical data may be subject to revisions resulting from issues identified during the benchmark process." The preliminary benchmark revision showed an increase of 95,000 jobs.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 95.0, up from 94.4 in January.