In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in November due to Hurricanes

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2017 04:30:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate increased to 1.12% in November, up from 1.01% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.23% in November 2016.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (4% of portfolio), 3.05% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (7% of portfolio), 6.26% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2017 (89% of portfolio), only 0.42% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years.

This increase in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - and we might see a further increase over the next month (These are serious delinquencies, so it takes three months late to be counted).

After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline another 0.5 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.

Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.