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Thursday, October 05, 2017

Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2017 01:57:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +50k in September, below consensus of +80k and the 3-month average pace of +185k. Our forecast reflects the widespread flooding and power outages caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which affected over 10% of the population and caused over $100bn in damages. The impact on tomorrow’s report is highly uncertain, but our base-case assumes a significant impact of -125k that partially offsets continued job growth in the rest of the country.

We also expect the hurricanes to weigh on the household survey results ... we estimate a rise [in the unemployment rate] to 4.5%). Finally, we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting positive calendar effects.
emphasis added
CR Note: I posted an employment preview yesterday.