Thursday, August 17, 2017

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "region continued to advance" in August

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2017 10:36:00 AM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: August 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to advance in August, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell slightly but continued to reflect growth. There was a notable improvement in the new orders and shipments indexes, and overall employment expansion continued among the reporting firms. The survey’s indexes of future activity indicate that firms expect a continuation of growth in the region’s manufacturing sector over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell slightly from 19.5 in July to 18.9 in August. The index has been positive for 13 consecutive months ... The survey’s indicators for labor market conditions suggest modest growth in employment. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (15 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreases (5 percent). The employment index held near steady at 10.1. Firms also reported overall increases in average work hours in August, and the workweek index was positive for the 10th consecutive month.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show somewhat faster, and solid expansion in August.