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Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in March

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2017 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Seattle, Portland, Dallas and Denver Lead Gains in S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in March, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 33-month high. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices came in at 5.2% and 5.9% annual increases, respectively, unchanged from last month.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Seattle led the way with a 12.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.2%, and Dallas with an 8.6% increase. Ten cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March 2017 than in the year ending February 2017.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.8% in March. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 1.0% increase. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase after seasonal adjustment. Eighteen of the 20 cities reported increases in March before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 17 cities saw prices rise.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 6.4% from the peak, and up 0.8% in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 3.9% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in March.

The National index is 2.4% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in March.  The National index is up 38.4% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 5.2% compared to March 2016.  The Composite 20 SA is up 5.9% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.8% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 18 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.