by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2017 11:58:00 AM

From the Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $45.2 billion in November, up $2.9 billion from $42.4 billion in October, revised. November exports were $185.8 billion, $0.4 billion less than October exports. November imports were $231.1 billion, $2.4 billion more than October imports.

The trade deficit was larger than the consensus forecast.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2016.

Click on graph for larger image.

Imports increased and exports decreased in October.

Exports are 12% above the pre-recession peak and up 1% compared to November 2015; imports are up 3% compared to November 2015. 

It appears trade might be picking up a little.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil imports averaged $40.82 in November, up from $40.01 in October, and down from $39.19 in November 2015.  The petroleum deficit has generally been declining and is the major reason the overall deficit has declined a little since early 2012.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $30.5 billion in November, from $31.3 billion in November 2015. The deficit with China is a substantial portion of the overall deficit, but the deficit with China has been declining.