by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2016 05:55:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: November Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect a (Very) Modest Slowdown

After several months in a row of accelerating growth in U.S. home prices, the pace of appreciation is expected to slow somewhat in November, according to Zillow’s November Case-Shiller forecast.

The November Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.6 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), on par with the pace of annual growth and down slightly from the 0.9 percent monthly appreciation recorded in October. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from October, and the 20-city index is expected to grow 5 percent annually and 0.5 percent (SA) from October. Both annual and seasonally adjusted monthly appreciation forecasted for November for the 10- and 20-city indices would be slower than that recorded in October.

Zillow’s November Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s October Case-Shiller data release and the November 2016 Zillow Home Value Index. The November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, January 31.

The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be slightly lower in the November report compared to the October report.  The change for the National index will probably be about the same.