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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Zillow Forecast on Case-Shiller Index: "Expect a (Very) Modest Slowdown" in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2016 05:55:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: November Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect a (Very) Modest Slowdown

After several months in a row of accelerating growth in U.S. home prices, the pace of appreciation is expected to slow somewhat in November, according to Zillow’s November Case-Shiller forecast.

The November Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.6 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), on par with the pace of annual growth and down slightly from the 0.9 percent monthly appreciation recorded in October. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from October, and the 20-city index is expected to grow 5 percent annually and 0.5 percent (SA) from October. Both annual and seasonally adjusted monthly appreciation forecasted for November for the 10- and 20-city indices would be slower than that recorded in October.

Zillow’s November Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s October Case-Shiller data release and the November 2016 Zillow Home Value Index. The November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, January 31.
The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be slightly lower in the November report compared to the October report.  The change for the National index will probably be about the same.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller