Monday, December 12, 2016

Duy: December FOMC Preview

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2016 07:30:00 PM

A few excerpts from long post by Tim Duy at Fed Watch: December FOMC Preview

The Federal Reserve will nudge rates 25bp higher this week. This will not end the policy tension among FOMC members. How will that unfold in 2017? My expectation is that whereas 2016 began with excessively high expectations for rate hikes, 2017 will be the opposite. My tendency is think that the risks to the Fed’s median forecast of 50bp of rate hikes in 2017 are more weighted to the upside than the downside. Beware then of a more aggressive than expected Fed.
Bottom Line: The Fed will hike rates this week; the unemployment drop will give added weight to case for a preemptive rate hike. They will play it close to the vest regarding future policy; although the stars are beginning to align for stronger growth next year, this represents more of a risk than a reality. Expect Federal Reserve Chair Yellen to emphasize that policy is data dependent.
Other FOMC previews from Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Nomura, and a review of projections.

The consensus is the Fed will hike rates this week. Currently expectations are the Fed will hike twice next year ...