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Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Look Back: In 2006 I predicted House Prices would fall 40%+ in the Bay Area

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2016 03:42:00 PM

A reader asked about an old (and I suppose bold at the time) prediction ...

In 2006 I wrote Bay Area: How far will prices fall?

In the comments to the previous post I suggested that Bay Area prices might fall 40%+ in real terms over 5 to 7 years. ac asked how I came up with that estimate, and Lester suggested somewhat impolitely that the estimate did not match my "moderate, professorial tone".
So how far did prices fall?

According to Case-Shiller, prices in San Francisco peaked in March 2006 with the index at 219.31. Prices bottomed in San Francisco in May of 2009 at 119.97. That was a nominal decline of 45% (real of 50%), however in a shorter period than I expected - probably because of the boom in tech. Most areas bottomed in early 2012 (the expected 5 to 7 years).

Other areas of the Bay Area probably did worse.

As I noted in 2006, I predicted the price decline based on previous housing busts, and factored in the larger bubble.

But what have I done lately?  Nothing bold, unless this counts.  I think we can agree those recession calls were incorrect.