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Thursday, September 01, 2016

Friday: Jobs, Trade Deficit

by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2016 07:01:00 PM

• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, down from the 255,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.8%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.3 billion in July from $44.5 billion in June.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is a 2.0% increase in orders.

From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Thoughts Ahead Of The Employment Report

The August employment report has come to be seen as the deciding factor in the Fed's upcoming decision on rates. See Sam Fleming at the Financial Times here. Maybe this is the case, maybe not. I hope not. Hinging policy on the first print of nonfarm payrolls - a volatile, heavily revised number - would be pretty low quality policy making.
Bottom Line: Regardless of the outcome of the employment report, good or bad, I don't see good case for moving this month. Too many questions about the forecast, and they still face persistently low inflation and asymmetric policy risks. But all that said, there seems to be a large swath of voting members ready to get behind a rate hike. I think the low odds on a rate hike in September is the market's way of telling the Fed that if they do hike, it would be a mistake.