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Thursday, August 04, 2016

Goldman's July NFP Preview

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2016 10:34:00 AM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' July Payroll Preview by economist David Mericle:

We expect a 190k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in July, slightly above consensus expectations for a 180k gain. ...

The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.9%, though we see the risks as tilted to the downside. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% in July and 2.6% over the past year.
Our wage tracker—which aggregates four measures of wage growth—has accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in our preliminary Q2 estimate, a sign that diminishing slack is boosting wage growth.