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Friday, April 22, 2016

Goldman: Expect FOMC statement next week to say risks are "nearly balanced"

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2016 02:35:00 PM

The FOMC meets next week and no change in policy is expected. The focus will be on the wording and for any hint of a June rate increase.

Here are a few brief excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius:

Financial markets once again expect the FOMC to stand pat at its upcoming meeting. Indeed, minutes from the March FOMC meeting essentially ruled out any action next week ... Nonetheless, the statement accompanying Wednesday’s decision could offer important signals for the near-term policy outlook.

The key question will be what the committee does with its balance of risks assessment, which has been excluded from the statements following the last two meetings. We expect the statement to say that risks to the outlook are “nearly balanced”, or to otherwise indicate that downside risks have receded somewhat since early this year.