Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI

by Bill McBride on 3/30/2016 06:40:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch on March payroll report:

The March employment report likely showed another strong month for the labor market. We anticipate a healthy 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the private sector contributing 185,000. Job cuts likely continued in the mining sector given low oil prices. Meanwhile, early signs from the manufacturing sector point to a rebound in activity this month, so we may see a pick-up in hiring after the decline in February. Elsewhere, construction and services likely saw further healthy gains.

We expect the unemployment rate to hold in at 4.9% ... there is a risk that the unemployment rate heads lower to 4.8%. On wages, we think average hourly earnings posted a nice 0.3% mom gain, reversing the 0.1% decline previously. This would leave the yoy rate unchanged at 2.2%.
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 266 thousand initial claims, up from 265 thousand the previous week.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 50.3, up from 47.6 in February.