Tuesday, March 15, 2016

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.4% year-over-year in January

by Bill McBride on 3/15/2016 03:28:00 PM

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their January 2016 index data.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values decreased 0.3% from December to January (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted). 

The 10 city MSA decreased 0.4% (NSA), the 20-MSA RPI decreased 0.3%, and the 30-MSA RPI decreased 0.4% in January. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

From FNC: FNC Index: January Home Prices Down 0.3

According to the latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI), U.S. home prices in January showed a seasonal decline, down 0.3% from December, reflecting flat home sales during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, home prices rose 6.4% from December 2015.

“January is typically a slow month for housing activity, and month-over-month fluctuations in home prices tend to reflect that,” said Yanling Mayer, FNC’s housing economist and Director of Research.
In Houston, home prices were down 2.0%, or an average of 1.2% per month in the last 3 months, likely impacted by job losses in the energy sector from collapsing oil prices.
Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The index is still down 14.3% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through January 2016. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change in the mid single digit range.

Note: The January Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, March 29th.