by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2016 04:47:00 PM

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl: Revising our Fed Call

We ... now expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the March 15-16 meeting ... financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, and officials sound inclined to take more time ... We therefore expect the next rate increase in June, and see a total of three rate increases this year.

... our forecasts remain well-above market pricing, which now shows only about a 50% chance that the Fed raises rates at all this year, and a 25% chance that the committee lowers rates. The first full rate hike is not priced in until about August 2017.