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Tuesday, February 09, 2016

EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Gasoline Prices expected to average $1.98/gal in 2016

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2016 02:00:00 PM

Oil prices are down today, with Brent at $30.51 per barrel, and WTI at $28.08.

Here is an excerpt from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released today.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $38/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average the same as Brent in both years. However, the current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. ...

The U.S. retail regular gasoline price is forecast to average $1.98/gallon (gal) in 2016 and $2.21/gal in 2017, compared with $2.43/gal in 2015. In January, the average retail regular gasoline price was $1.95/gal, a decrease of 9 cents/gal from December and the first time monthly gasoline prices averaged below $2/gal since March 2009. EIA expects the monthly average retail price of U.S. regular gasoline to reach a seven-year low of $1.82/gal in February 2016, before rising during the spring. ...

U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million b/d in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.5 million b/d in 2017. EIA estimates that crude oil production in January was 70,000 b/d below the December level, which was 9.2 million b/d.
Oil InventoryA few more comments from the EIA:
“Continuing increases in global oil inventories are expected to keep oil prices under $40 a barrel through August.”

U.S. commercial inventories of crude oil reached nearly 503 million barrels at the end of January, marking the first time that oil stocks topped 500 million barrels since 1930.”

“Builds in oil inventories will continue, with U.S. crude stocks expected to peak this year at 517 million barrels in April.”
emphasis added
Right now gasoline prices are down to around $1.72 per gallon nationally according to the