Monday, January 18, 2016

Monday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 1/18/2016 09:03:00 PM

Note: China's GDP was reported at 6.9% year-over-year, at expectations.

Schedule for Week of January 17, 2016

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December and Post-Mortem on November

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

• At 10:00 AM ET, the January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 62, up from 61 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up 12 and DOW futures are up 120 (fair value).

Oil prices were down sharply over the last week with WTI futures at $29.20 per barrel (lowest since 2003) and Brent at $28.83 per barrel (lowest since 2003).  A year ago, WTI was at $47, and Brent was at $48 - so prices are down about 40% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $1.89 per gallon (down about $0.20 per gallon from a year ago).  Gasoline prices should decline over the next few weeks based on the sharp decline in oil prices.