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Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Hilsenrath: "Fed Plans to Signal Gradual, Cautious Path on Rate Hikes"

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2015 01:42:00 PM

The Fed will raise rates next week, and now the attention will shift to the path of future rate hikes.

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Plans to Signal Gradual, Cautious Path on Rate Hikes. A few excerpts:

Fed officials want to signal they expect to proceed slowly and cautiously before raising rates again. Ms. Yellen has emphasized in recent speeches that the economy won’t be able to bear very high interest rates in the years ahead.
The median forecast among 17 officials in September showed they expected the rate to reach 1.375% in December 2016 and 2.625% in late 2017. That would put them on track to raise rates four times next year and five times in 2017.

Futures markets point to a shallower trajectory. For instance, futures contracts indicate traders expect a 0.85% rate by December 2016. 
Right now I expect 3 or 4 rate increases next year, but it could be less.