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Tuesday, December 08, 2015

EIA: Gasoline Prices expected to average $2.36/gal in 2016

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2015 08:58:00 PM

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, the Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

Oil prices have fallen sharply, with Brent at $40.83 per barrel, and WTI at $38.17.

Currently the EIA expects gasoline prices to average $2.36/gal in 2016 according to the Short Term Energy Outlook released today:

• EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $53/b in 2015 and $56/b in 2016. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016. The current values of futures and options contracts for March 2016 delivery (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) suggest the market expects WTI prices to range from $30/b to $63/b (at the 95% confidence interval). ...

• The monthly average price of U.S. regular retail gasoline was $2.16/gallon (gal) in November, a decrease of 13 cents/gal from October and 75 cents/gal lower than in November 2014. EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.04/gal in December 2015 and $2.36/gal for 2016.
emphasis added
Right now gasoline prices are down to around $2.02 per gallon nationally according to the