Sunday, November 15, 2015

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2015 06:22:00 PM

From the LA Times: El Niño 'is here, and it is huge,' as officials race to prep for winter

El Niño continues to gain strength in the Pacific Ocean, climate experts said, with unusually wet conditions expected to hit California between January and March -- and perhaps into May.
It will probably be a crazy winter. Goldman Sachs thinks El Niño will provide a small economic boost: El Niño: A Potential Small Boost to Growth This Winter
The El Niño climatological event that began this spring is currently on track to be one of the five strongest episodes since 1950. ... we assess the implications for the US economy.

Weather conditions have varied widely during previous major El Niño events, and considerable uncertainty remains about this winter’s conditions. On average, the US has had about 1 standard deviation more precipitation and fewer heating degree days (warmer weather) during El Niño winters, with the South generally wetter and the North generally warmer.

If weather this winter is in line with conditions during the average major El Niño, we would expect warmer temperatures to boost growth by about 0.2pp during Q1. On the inflation side, while food prices have been somewhat higher and energy prices somewhat lower during El Niño winters, we would not expect a significant impact on core inflation.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of -5.0, up from -11.4.

Schedule for Week of November 15, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 119 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $40.74 per barrel and Brent at $44.47 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so prices are down about 40% year-over-year (It was a year ago that prices were falling sharply).

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.15 per gallon (down about $0.75 per gallon from a year ago).