Friday, November 13, 2015

Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.1

by Bill McBride on 11/13/2015 10:02:00 AM

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November was at 93.1, up from 90.0 in October.

"Confidence rose in early November mainly due to a stronger outlook for the domestic economy. Overall, the most recent confidence reading was equal to the average during the first ten months of 2015, and higher than any year since 2004. Two trends dominated the early November data: consumers anticipated somewhat larger income increases during the year ahead as well as expected a somewhat lower inflation rate. This meant that consumers held the most favorable inflation-adjusted income expectations since 2007. Moreover, the somewhat larger gains were anticipated by lower income households. Buying plans for large discretionary purchases improved, especially for vehicles. Overall, the data indicate an expected rate of growth in personal consumption expenditures of 2.9% in 2016. "
This was above the consensus forecast of 92.0.

Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.