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Thursday, November 05, 2015

NFP: Goldman Employment Preview

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2015 10:42:00 AM

Yesterday I discussed several employment indicators: Preview: Employment Report for October

Here are some excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Chris Mischaikow:

Based on better-than-expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously.
Our baseline expectation is for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1%. The labor force participation rate (LFPR) declined by two-tenths in September, and we expect a modest rebound from this larger-than-usual decline. ... However, this remains a close call given that the unemployment rate is currently at 5.051% on an unrounded basis.

We forecast average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees to increase 0.3%. ... we think that the year-on-year change in all-employee AHE will increase to 2.3%. This would mark the fastest year-over-year pace of growth on an unrounded basis in AHE since October 2009.